希腊如果再破产 或者债务危机 持绿卡不会被一起还债吧
- 培训职业
- 2025-05-06 18:16:35
按照当前的债务结构与Troika设计的还债方案，没有可能。德国人寄望于强加紧缩政策让希腊还债，只会使其陷入进一步的萧条，希腊经济不会增长，而德国主导的借贷甚至还有相当高的利率要从中赚钱。
目前的希腊危机有两种出路，一种是借贷国家对希腊减债，重组债务结构，将债券收益与未来希腊的经济成长挂钩，成为"伙伴"而非"债主"；一种就是希腊“被逼急了脱离欧元区”，造成希腊信用破产的同时，其经济未来将有高度的不确定性，而德国及其它欧盟国家至少短期内会面临一场信心危机和经济衰退，因此即使再不情愿，援助在面子上还是要继续。
前者是希腊提出的方案，也是我认为比较理智的方案，希腊财长Varoufakis，所谓左翼经济学家Stiglitz,Krugman为此类方案背书，然而，基于某种盲目的教条经济学崇拜和“有债必还”的民粹绑架，减债不大可能发生，更可能发生的还是后一种选项，希腊被迫退欧及新一轮的多米诺金融危机。
建议阅读：
Deescalating Europe’s Politics of Resentment by Yanis Varoufakis
【The fact is that Greece had no right to borrow from German – or any other European – taxpayers at a time when its public debt was unsustainable. Before Greece took any loans, it should have initiated debt restructuring and undergone a partial default on debt owed to its private-sector creditors. But this “radical” argument was largely ignored at the time.
Similarly, European citizens should have demanded that their governments refuse even to consider transferring private losses to them. But they failed to do so, and the
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